Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon

Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon

Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCM

Tomorrow, the unemployment rate for April 2020 will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It will hit a peak this country has never seen before, with data representing real families and lives affected by this economic slowdown. The numbers will alarm us. There will be headlines and doomsday scenarios in the media. There is hope, though, that as businesses reopen, most people will become employed again soon.

Last month’s report indicated we initially lost over 700,000 jobs in this country, and the unemployment rate quickly rose to 4.4%. With the release of the new data, that number will climb even higher. Experts forecast this report will show somewhere between a 15% – 20% national unemployment rate, and some anticipate that number to be even greater (see graph below):Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCM

What’s happened over the last several weeks? 

Here’s a breakdown of this spring’s weekly unemployment filings:Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCMThe good news shown here indicates the number of additional unemployment claims has decreased week over week since the beginning of April. Carlos Rodriguez, CEO of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) says based on what he’s seeing:

“It’s possible that companies are already anticipating some kind of normalization, opening in certain states and starting to post jobs.” 

He goes on to say that this doesn’t mean all companies are hiring, but it could mean they are at the point where they’re not cutting jobs anymore. Let’s hope this trend continues.

What will the future bring?

Most experts predict that while unemployment is high right now, it won’t be that way for long. The length of unemployment during this crisis is projected to be significantly shorter than the duration seen in the Great Recession and the Great Depression.Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon | MyKCMWhile forecasts may be high, the numbers are trending down and the length of time isn’t expected to last forever.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the headlines rattle you. There’s hope coming as we start to safely reopen businesses throughout the country. Unemployment affects our families, our businesses, and our country. Our job is to rally around those impacted and do our part to support them through this time.

Recession Fears may be Exaggerated

Recession Fears may be Exaggerated

The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company has found that Housing Market Trends are now nearly the complete opposite of conditions in the months prior to the Great Recession, according to Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, global chief economist for Arch Capital Services.

Research on how past recessions affected home values shows current conditions will have a less severe impact on housing than the recession in 2008 did. DeFranco says “A recession is inevitable at some point, but it’s likely to be far less severe for the housing market than the Great Recession,” He goes on to say that “We estimate that the current market is underbuilt by 1 million or more homes, buyers are more cautious and loan quality is far higher. In 2007, conditions were completely flipped: housing was hugely overbuilt, speculative demand was off the charts and the market was awash with high-risk loan products.”

Franco further states, that the quarterly Arch MI Risk Index, a statistical model based on nine indicators of the health of local housing markets, suggests that the probability U.S. home prices will be lower in two years is 9 percent, an increase from 6 percent in the previous study.

In Florida, an Arch index infographic suggests that Florida home values have only a 6 percent chance of declining in two years. However, a higher risk (25 percent) in Miami suggests the chances are even lower in the rest of the state.

Nationally, the overall risk of a decline in home prices remains better than the historic average of 17 percent. Every state is expected to have positive home price growth over the next two years, continuing recent trends.                                                                                          © 2019 Florida Realtors®

Eileen Kedersha, Broker Associate One Sotheby’s International Realty – Kedersha Group 954-561-4100 EKedersha@OneSothebysRealty.com

 

Local South Florida Counties February Summary Real Estate Sales Data

Eileen Kedersha, Broker Associate, EKedersha@OneSothebysRealty.com
William Kedersha, WKedersha@OneSothebysRealty.com
One Sotheby’s International Realty – Kedersha Group
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