{"id":9932,"date":"2024-03-05T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-05T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/?p=9932"},"modified":"2024-03-05T06:30:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-05T11:30:00","slug":"why-there-wont-be-a-recession-that-tanks-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/?p=9932","title":{"rendered":"Why There Won\u2019t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Why<\/p>\n

There\u2019s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we\u2019re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here\u2019s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn\u2019t going to happen.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

According<\/a> to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree<\/em>, the economy\u2019s pretty strong:<\/p>\n

\u201cAt least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, <\/em>the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for<\/em><\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That might be why a recent survey<\/a> from the Wall Street Journal<\/em> shows only 39% of economists think there\u2019ll be a recession in the next year. That\u2019s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below<\/em>):<\/p>\n

\"a<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Most experts believe there won\u2019t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let\u2019s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends<\/em><\/a>, the Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/em><\/a> (BLS), and Trading Economics<\/em><\/a>. When we do, it\u2019s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below<\/em>):<\/p>\n

\u00a0\"a<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue<\/em>).<\/p>\n

But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal<\/em> survey<\/a> to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below<\/em>):<\/p>\n

\u00a0\"a<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

As you can see, economists don\u2019t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years \u2013 much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed. <\/p>\n

Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone\u2019s out of work, that\u2019s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn’t expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/h3>\n

Most experts now think we won’t have a recession in the next year. They also don’t expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don\u2019t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\"Why<\/p>\n

There\u2019s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"bgseo_title":"","bgseo_description":"","bgseo_robots_index":"","bgseo_robots_follow":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,10,86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-foreclosures","category-housing-market-updates"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9932"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9932\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}