{"id":9856,"date":"2024-02-15T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-15T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/?p=9856"},"modified":"2024-02-15T06:30:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-15T11:30:00","slug":"dont-let-the-latest-home-price-headlines-confuse-you-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/?p=9856","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t Let the Latest Home Price Headlines Confuse You"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Don\u2019t<\/p>\n

Based on what you\u2019re hearing in the news about home prices<\/a>, you may be worried they\u2019re falling. But here\u2019s the thing. The headlines<\/a> aren\u2019t giving you the full picture.<\/p>\n

If you look at the national data for 2023, home prices<\/a> actually showed positive growth for the year. While this varies by market, and while there were some months with slight declines nationally, those were the exception, not the rule.<\/p>\n

The overarching story is that prices went up last year, not down. Let\u2019s dive into the data to set the record straight.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

2023 Was the Return to More Normal Home Price Growth<\/strong><\/h4>\n

If anything, last year marked a return to more normal\u00a0home price appreciation<\/a>. To prove it, here\u2019s what usually happens in residential real estate.<\/p>\n

In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that take place each year. It\u2019s called seasonality. It goes like this. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is usually still strong in the summer, but begins to wane toward the end of the year. Home prices follow along with this seasonality because prices grow the most when there\u2019s high demand.<\/p>\n

The graph below uses data from\u00a0Case-Shiller<\/em><\/a>\u00a0to show how this pattern played out in home prices from 1973 through 2022 (not\u00a0adjusted<\/a>, so you can see the seasonality):<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

As the data shows, for nearly 50 years, home prices match typical market seasonality. At the beginning of the year, home prices grow more moderately. That\u2019s because the market is less active as fewer people move in January and February. Then, as the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up. That means home prices do too. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again and prices grow, just at a slower rate.<\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s layer the data that\u2019s come out for 2023 so far (shown in green<\/em>) on top of that long-term trend (still shown in blue<\/em>). That way, it\u2019s easy to see how 2023 compares.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

As the graph shows, moving through the year in 2023, the level of appreciation fell more in line with the long-term trend for what usually happens in the housing market. You can see that in how close the green bars come to matching the blue bars in the later part of the year.<\/p>\n

But the headlines only really focused on the two bars outlined in red. Here\u2019s the context you may not have gotten that can really put those two bars into perspective. The long-term trend shows it\u2019s normal for home prices<\/a> to moderate in the fall and winter. That\u2019s typical seasonality.<\/p>\n

And since the 49-year average is so close to zero during those months (0.10%), that also means it\u2019s not unusual for home prices to drop ever so slightly during those times. But those are just blips on the radar. If you look at the year as a whole, home prices still rose overall.<\/p>\n

What You Really Need To Know<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Headlines are going to call attention to the small month-to-month dips instead of the bigger year-long picture. And that can be a bit misleading because it\u2019s only focused on one part of the whole story.<\/p>\n

Instead, remember last year we saw the return of seasonality in the housing market \u2013 and that\u2019s a good thing after home prices skyrocketed unsustainably during the \u2018unicorn\u2019 years<\/a>\u00a0of the pandemic.<\/p>\n

And just in case you\u2019re still worried home prices will fall, don\u2019t be. The expectation for this year is that prices will continue to appreciate<\/a> as buyers re-enter the market due to mortgage rates<\/a> trending down compared to last year. As buyer demand goes up and more people move<\/a> at the same time the supply of homes for sale is still low, the upward pressure on prices will continue.<\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/h3>\n

Don\u2019t let home price headlines confuse you. The data shows that, as a whole, home prices rose in 2023. If you have questions about what you\u2019re hearing in the news or about what\u2019s happening with home prices in your local area, connect with a trusted real estate professional.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Based on what you\u2019re hearing in the news about home prices, you may be worried they\u2019re falling. But here\u2019s the thing. The headlines aren\u2019t giving you the full picture. If you look at the national data for 2023, home prices actually showed positive growth for the year. While this varies by market, and while there […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"bgseo_title":"","bgseo_description":"","bgseo_robots_index":"","bgseo_robots_follow":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9856\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.sfloridaluxuryhomes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}