Recession Fears may be Exaggerated

The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company has found that Housing Market Trends are now nearly the complete opposite of conditions in the months prior to the Great Recession, according to Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, global chief economist for Arch Capital Services.

Research on how past recessions affected home values shows current conditions will have a less severe impact on housing than the recession in 2008 did. DeFranco says “A recession is inevitable at some point, but it’s likely to be far less severe for the housing market than the Great Recession,” He goes on to say that “We estimate that the current market is underbuilt by 1 million or more homes, buyers are more cautious and loan quality is far higher. In 2007, conditions were completely flipped: housing was hugely overbuilt, speculative demand was off the charts and the market was awash with high-risk loan products.”

Franco further states, that the quarterly Arch MI Risk Index, a statistical model based on nine indicators of the health of local housing markets, suggests that the probability U.S. home prices will be lower in two years is 9 percent, an increase from 6 percent in the previous study.

In Florida, an Arch index infographic suggests that Florida home values have only a 6 percent chance of declining in two years. However, a higher risk (25 percent) in Miami suggests the chances are even lower in the rest of the state.

Nationally, the overall risk of a decline in home prices remains better than the historic average of 17 percent. Every state is expected to have positive home price growth over the next two years, continuing recent trends.                                                                                          © 2019 Florida Realtors®

Eileen Kedersha, Broker Associate One Sotheby’s International Realty – Kedersha Group 954-561-4100 EKedersha@OneSothebysRealty.com

 

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Cheaper home prices and lower mortgage rates are luring more Floridians back into the housing market, but the same story isn’t playing out nationally.

Florida’s existing home sales rose 24 percent last month, the fifth consecutive month to show an increase in activity, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

Nationwide, however, sales of existing homes fell 5.3 percent in January to their lowest levels in nearly 12 years.

In Florida 8,450 existing homes sold, up 24 percent from the 6,810 homes sold in January 2008, according to FAR.

“Many people are looking at today’s market and seeing opportunities to find the home or business they’ve always wanted,” FAR President Cynthia Shelton said.

What’s good news for buyers is bad for sellers, as foreclosures continue to depress home values.

The statewide median sales price for existing homes last month was $139,500, down 33 percent from last year, when the median sales price was $206,900.

Condos also are selling, with FAR reporting a 13 percent statewide gain to 2,556 units sold, up nearly 13 percent from 2,266 sold in January 2008. The existing condo median sales price last month was $113,400, down 40 percent from last January, when it was $190,200.

Fort Lauderdale saw home sales soar 52 percent in January, to 467 from 307 a year ago. Values continue their downward spiral, with the median price at $191,000, down 39 percent from last January’s median price of $314,200.

Condo sales in Fort Lauderdale were up 29 percent, to 531 units from 411, but median prices were nearly halved to $85,000 from $153,000 a year ago.

Miami reported a 47 percent hike in the number of existing home sales, to 407 from 276. The median price, however, fell 38 percent, to $208,100 from $336,800.

Miami condo sales were up 27 percent, to 379 units from 298. The median price fell 48 percent, to $149,100 from $284,000.

Activity wasn’t as upbeat in West Palm Beach, where January sales were up just 11 percent to 408 homes sold from 369 a year ago. Median prices were down 32 percent, to $232,100 from $343,200.

Condo sales were up 24 percent, to 375 units from 303. The median sales price was down 31 percent, to $108,900 from $157,700.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in December 2008 was $174,700, down 14.8 percent from a year earlier, according to National Association of Realtors.

“It appears some buyers are taking advantage of much lower home prices,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. “The higher monthly sales gain and falling inventory are steps in the right direction, but buyers will continue to have an edge over sellers for the foreseeable future.”